Shuga yaiwisi imasokoneza thandizo lanyumba

Moni, bwerani mudzakambirane zinthu zathu!

Shuga woyera
Shuga yaiwisi imasokoneza thandizo lanyumba

Shuga wosaphika adasinthasintha pang'ono dzulo, kulimbikitsidwa ndi ziyembekezo zakutsika kwa shuga waku Brazil.Mgwirizano waukulu udafika pa 14.77 senti paundi ndipo idatsika mpaka masenti 14.54 paundi.Mtengo womaliza womaliza wa mgwirizano waukulu unakwera 0.41% kuti utseke pa 14.76 senti pa paundi.Kuchuluka kwa shuga m’madera amene amalima nzimbe kumadera apakati ndi kum’mwera kwa Brazil kudzatsika mpaka kutsika kwa zaka zitatu m’chaka chamawa.Chifukwa chosowa kubzalanso, zokolola za nzimbe pagawo lililonse zidzachepa ndipo kupanga kwa ethanol kudzawonjezeka.Kingsman akuyerekeza kuti kupanga shuga pakati ndi kumwera kwa Brazil mu 2018-19 ndi matani 33.99 miliyoni.Zoposa 90% za kupanga Tangtang ku China pakati ndi kumwera kwa Brazil.Kuchuluka kwa shuga kumeneku kumatanthauza kuchepa kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa matani 2.1 miliyoni ndipo idzakhala yotsika kwambiri kuyambira matani 31.22 miliyoni mu 2015-16.Kumbali inayi, nkhani yakusiya kwa Reserve Reserve kwa State Reserve idagayidwa pang'onopang'ono ndi msika.Ngakhale kuti mtengo wa shuga unatsikanso masana, unapeza malo ake otayika kumapeto kwa masana.Potengera zomwe zachitika mumitundu ina, timakhulupirira kuti kugulitsa nkhokwe sikungakhudze momwe msika umayendera.Kwa osunga ndalama apakati komanso anthawi yayitali, atha kudikirira kuti mtengo ukhazikike ndikugula mgwirizano wa 1801 pamalonda.Ponena za ndalama zogulira, wochita malonda atha kuchita zomwe zingachitike pakugubuduza kugulitsa kuyimba kongoganiza pang'ono potengera malo pakanthawi kochepa.M'zaka zikubwerazi 1-2, kugwiritsa ntchito njira zophimbidwa zitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito ngati chowonjezera chandalama.Pakadali pano, kwa osunga ndalama zamtengo wapatali, amathanso kugula njira zoimbira foni ndi mitengo yolimbitsa thupi ya 6300 mpaka 6400, mtengo wa shuga ukakwera kuti njira yeniyeni ikhale yofunikira, mutha kutseka njira yoyimbirayi ndi mtengo wotsika wolimbitsa thupi koyambirira komanso pitilizani kugula njira yatsopano yoyimbira foni (njira yoyimba ndi mtengo wolimbitsa thupi wa 6500 kapena 6600), ndipo pang'onopang'ono sankhani mwayi woyimitsa phindu pomwe mtengo wa shuga ufika ku 6600 yuan / tani.
Ulusi wa thonje ndi thonje

Utoto wa US udapitilira kugwa, kukakamiza kwa thonje m'nyumba
Tsogolo la thonje la ayezi lidapitilirabe kugwa dzulo pomwe nkhawa yokhudzana ndi kuwonongeka kwa thonje yomwe idabwera chifukwa cha mphepo yamkuntho Maria idachepa ndipo msika ukudikirira kukolola thonje.Thonje wamkulu wa ICE1 February adatsika masenti 1.05 / paundi mpaka masenti 68.2 paundi.Malinga ndi deta yaposachedwa ya USDA, mu sabata la Seputembara 14, 2017/18, ukonde wa thonje waku US udapanga matani 63100, ndikuwonjezeka kwa mwezi pamwezi kwa matani 47500, komanso kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi matani 14600;kutumiza kwa matani 41100, mwezi pamwezi kuwonjezereka kwa matani 15700, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi chaka kwa matani a 3600, kuwerengera 51% ya voliyumu yogulitsa kunja (USDA mu September), yomwe ili 9% kuposa zaka zisanu. mtengo wapakati.Kumbali yapakhomo, ulusi wa zhengmian ndi thonje unali wopanikizika, ndipo mgwirizano womaliza wa thonje wa 1801 unatsekedwa Mphatsoyi inali 15415 yuan / ton, pansi pa 215 yuan / ton.Mgwirizano wa thonje wa 1801 unatsekedwa pa 23210 yuan / ton, kutsika 175 yuan / tani.Pankhani ya kasinthasintha wa thonje wosungira, matani 30024 adaperekedwa pa tsiku lachinayi la sabata ino, ndipo voliyumu yeniyeni yogulitsira inali matani 29460, ndi chiwerengero cha 98.12%.Mtengo wapakati watsika ndi 124 yuan/tani kufika pa 14800 yuan/tani.Pa September 22, voliyumu yozungulira yomwe inakonzedwa inali matani 26800, kuphatikizapo matani a 19400 a thonje la Xinjiang.Mitengo ya Spot idakhazikika ndikuwuka pang'ono, ndikugulitsa kwa CC 3128b pa 15974 yuan / tani, kukwera 2 yuan / tani kuchokera tsiku lapitalo.Mndandanda wamtengo wa 32 Combed Yarns unali 23400 yuan / ton ndipo wa 40 Combed Yarns unali 26900 yuan / ton.Mwachidule, thonje la ku America linapitiriza kugwa, ndipo maluwa atsopano apanyumba analembedwa pang'onopang'ono.Zheng thonje idakhudzidwa ndi izi kwakanthawi kochepa ndipo idakhalabe yosasunthika pakati komanso mochedwa.Otsatsa amatha kugula pang'onopang'ono pazachuma pambuyo pa tsoka la thonje laku America litagayidwa.Pa nthawi yomweyo, posachedwapa thonje thonje malo pang'onopang'ono kulimbikitsa, tikhoza kudikira thonje thonje bata, komanso pang'onopang'ono kugula pa malonda.
Chakudya cha nyemba

Kuchita mwamphamvu kwa US soya kutumiza kunja
Nyemba za soya za CBOT zidakwera pang'ono dzulo, kutseka pa 970.6 cents / PU, koma zonse zikadali mubokosi lodabwitsa.Lipoti logulitsa kunja kwa sabata iliyonse linali labwino.M'sabata yaposachedwa, kuchuluka kwa malonda ogulitsa kunja kwa nyemba zaku US kunali matani 2338000, okwera kwambiri kuposa momwe msika umanenera matani 1.2-1.5 miliyoni.Pakadali pano, USDA idalengeza kuti ogulitsa kunja adagulitsa matani 132000 a soya ku China.Pakalipano, msika ukusewera masewera pakati pa zokolola zambiri ndi zofuna zamphamvu.Kuyambira Lamlungu lapitali, zokolola zinali 4%, ndipo mlingo wabwino kwambiri ndi wabwino unali 1% mpaka 59% kutsika kuposa sabata yapitayo.Zotsatira zoyipa za zokolola zambiri zimayembekezeredwa, ndipo kufunikira kwamphamvu kopitilira kumathandizira mtengo.Poyerekeza ndi zam'mbuyomu, tili ndi chiyembekezo pamsika.Kuonjezera apo, ndi kutsetsereka kwa kupanga kwa US, zomwe zidzachitike pambuyo pake zidzasintha pang'onopang'ono ku South America kubzala ndi kukula kwa soya, ndipo nkhani yongopeka idzawonjezeka.Panali kusintha pang'ono kumbali yapakhomo.Zogulitsa za soya m'madoko ndi mafakitale amafuta zidagwa sabata yatha, koma zidali pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri munthawi yomweyi.Sabata yatha, kuchuluka kwamafuta opangira mafuta kudakwera mpaka 58.72%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa malonda a soya tsiku lililonse kudakwera kuchokera ku matani 115000 sabata yapitayo mpaka matani 162000.Zakudya za soya zamafuta amafuta zidachepa kwa milungu isanu ndi umodzi yotsatizana zisanachitike, koma zidachira pang'ono sabata yatha, zikukwera kuchokera ku matani 824900 mpaka matani 837700 kuyambira Seputembara 17. Chomera chamafuta chikuyembekezeka kupitiliza kugwira ntchito pamlingo wapamwamba sabata ino chifukwa ku phindu lalikulu ndi kukonzekera tsiku la dziko lisanafike.Sabata ino, kuchuluka kwa malonda ndi kutumiza pamalopo kudakwera kwambiri.Dzulo, kuchuluka kwa chakudya cha soya kunali matani 303200, mtengo wapakatikati unali 2819 (+ 28), ndipo voliyumu yobweretsera inali matani 79400.Zikuyembekezeka kuti chakudya cha soya chipitilira kutsatira soya waku US mbali imodzi, ndipo maziko ake azikhala okhazikika pakali pano.
Mafuta a soya

Kusintha kwamafuta otsika mtengo
Nyemba za soya zaku US nthawi zambiri zimasinthasintha ndikuwuka pang'ono dzulo, kutengera kuchuluka kwa nyemba zaku US zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja.Pambuyo pakusintha msika kwakanthawi kochepa, kufunikira kwamphamvu kwa US kudzachepetsanso kuwonjezereka kwa ndalama zogulira ndalama ndi malo osungiramo zinthu, ndipo mtengo ukhoza kukhala wofooka mpaka kutsika kokolola kwanyengo.Ma pan adagwa dzulo.Zomwe zimatuluka mu Seputembala, kuphatikiza nthawi yamtsogolo, zikuyembekezeka kuchira mwachangu.Kuchokera pa 1 mpaka 15 pa 9, kutumiza kwa Ma Palm palmu kudakwera ndi 20% mwezi uliwonse, ndipo kuchuluka kwa katundu wotumizidwa ku India ndi kumayiko ena kudatsika.Kuzungulira uku kwa kukwera kwa Malay kwakhala kokwera kwambiri.Zotulutsa zikadzabweranso pambuyo pake, Ma pan adzakhala ndi kusintha kwakukulu.Zofunika zapakhomo sizinasinthe kwambiri.Kuchuluka kwa mafuta a kanjedza ndi matani 360000, ndipo mafuta a soya ndi matani 1.37 miliyoni.Kukonzekera kwamasheya kwa zikondwerero kwalowa pambuyo pake, ndipo voliyumu yamalonda yatsika pang'onopang'ono.M'kupita kwanthawi, kufika kwa mafuta a kanjedza ku Hong Kong pang'onopang'ono kumawonjezeka, ndipo pang'onopang'ono kupanikizika kumayamba.Tsogolo lazinthu zidapitilirabe kugwa dzulo, mlengalenga waufupi udapitilira, ndipo mafuta adatsata kufooka.Pogwira ntchito, tikulimbikitsidwa kuti tidikire ndikuwona momwe msika ukuyendera.Pambuyo pachiwopsezo chatulutsidwa kwathunthu, titha kuganizira za kulowererapo kwa mafuta a masamba ndi mfundo zamphamvu.Kuonjezera apo, maziko a mafuta a kanjedza adachepa pambuyo pa kukwera kosalekeza, ndipo mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa mafuta a nyemba unalinso pamtunda wapamwamba.Pambuyo pake, kuchuluka kwa zokolola kunali kofulumira, ndipo Mapan nayenso anali kukonza.Pankhani ya arbitrage, kulowererapo kwanthawi yake pakufalikira kwamitengo ya kanjedza kapena kanjedza kungathe kuganiziridwa.
Chimanga ndi wowuma

Mitengo yamtsogolo idakweranso pang'ono
The zoweta chimanga malo mtengo anali wokhazikika ndi kugwa, pakati pa mtengo wogula chimanga kwambiri processing makampani ku North China anapitiriza kugwa, pamene madera ena anakhalabe wokhazikika;mtengo wamba wa wowuma nthawi zambiri udali wokhazikika, ndipo opanga ena adachepetsa mawu awo ndi 20-30 yuan / ton.Pankhani ya nkhani zamsika, kuchuluka kwa wowuma kwa mabizinesi akuzama a 29 + madoko omwe Tianxia nkhokwe imayang'ana pakutsata kwakwera mpaka matani a 176900 kuchokera ku matani 161700 sabata yatha;pa September 21, ndi sub loan ndi ndondomeko yaing'ono kubweza anali kugulitsa matani 48970 osakhalitsa yosungirako chimanga mu 2013, ndipo buku lenilenilo anali 48953 matani, ndi avareji wotuluka mtengo wa 1335 yuan;ndondomeko yogulitsa ya China National Grain Storage Company Limited ikukonzekera kugulitsa matani 903801 a chimanga chosungirako chakanthawi mu 2014, ndi ndalama zenizeni zokwana matani 755459 komanso mtengo wapakati wa yuan 1468 . Mitengo ya chimanga ndi wowuma inkasinthasintha mu malonda oyambirira chinawonjezeka pang'ono pamapeto.Kuyang'ana kutsogolo kwa siteji yamtsogolo, poganizira zamtengo wapatali wa madera opangira ndi malonda omwe akugwirizana ndi mtengo wanthawi yayitali wa chimanga, sizikugwirizana ndi zofunikira zenizeni ndi kubwezeretsanso kufunikira kwa chimanga chatsopano.Chifukwa chake, timakhalabe ndi chiweruzo cha bearish;ponena za wowuma, poganizira zotsatira za kuyang'anira chitetezo cha chilengedwe kapena kufooketsa, padzakhala mphamvu yatsopano yopangira isanayambe komanso itatha kutchulidwa kwa chimanga chatsopano m'tsogolomu.Tikuyembekeza kuti kupezeka kwanthawi yayitali komanso kufunikira kudzakhala bwino.Kuphatikizidwa ndi chiyembekezo cha mtengo wa chimanga ndi ndondomeko ya subsidy yomwe ingathe kukonzedwa mozama, timakhulupiriranso kuti mtengo wamtsogolo wa wowuma umakweranso.Pankhaniyi, ife amati ndalama akhoza kupitiriza kugwira chimanga / wowuma akusowekapo pepala kapena wowuma chimanga mtengo kufalitsa arbitrage mbiri kumayambiriro January, ndi kutenga mochedwa August mkulu ngati amasiya imfa.
dzira

Mitengo ikupitiriza kutsika
Malinga ndi data ya Zhihua, mtengo wa mazira m'dziko lonselo udapitilirabe kutsika, pomwe mtengo wapakati m'malo opanga zazikulu ukugwa ndi 0,04 yuan / Jin ndipo mtengo wapakati m'malo ogulitsa akutsika ndi 0,13 yuan / Jin.Kuwunika kwamalonda kukuwonetsa kuti amalonda ndi osavuta kulandira katundu komanso amachedwa kusuntha katundu.Malonda onse akuyenda bwino pang'ono poyerekeza ndi tsiku lapitalo.Zogulitsa zamalonda ndizochepa, ndipo zikupitiriza kukwera pang'ono poyerekeza ndi tsiku lapitalo.Zoyembekeza zamalonda zamalonda ndizochepa, makamaka ku East China ndi kum'mwera chakumadzulo kwa China Bearish ziyembekezo ndizolimba.Mtengo wa mazira udapitilirabe kutsika m'mawa, kuyambiranso pang'onopang'ono masana, ndikutseka kwambiri.Pankhani yotseka mtengo, mgwirizano mu Januwale udakwera ndi 95 yuan, mgwirizano mu Meyi udakwera ndi 45 yuan, ndipo mgwirizano mu Seputembala unali pafupi.Kuchokera pakuwunika kwa msika, titha kuwona kuti mtengo wamazira wapitilira kutsika kwambiri posachedwapa monga momwe zidakonzedwera, ndipo kutsika kwamitengo yamtsogolo ndikocheperako poyerekeza ndi mtengo wamalo, ndipo kuchotsera kwamitengo yakutsogolo kwasintha. mumtengo wapatali, zomwe zimasonyeza kuti kuyembekezera kwa msika kwasintha, ndiko kuti, kuchokera pachiyembekezo chosonyeza kutsika kwa mtengo wamtengo wapatali m'mbuyomu mpaka kuyembekezera kukwera Chikondwerero cha Spring chisanachitike.Pakuwona momwe msika ukuyendera, msika ukuyembekezeka kukhala pafupifupi 4000 ngati gawo lapansi la mtengo wa Januware.Pankhaniyi, tikulimbikitsidwa kuti osunga ndalama adikire ndikuwona.
Nkhumba yamoyo

Pitirizani kugwa
Malingana ndi deta ya zhuyi.com, mtengo wapakati wa nkhumba zamoyo unali 14.38 yuan / kg, 0.06 yuan / kg kutsika kuposa tsiku lapitalo.Mtengo wa nkhumba unapitirira kugwa popanda kukambirana.Talandila nkhani m'mawa uno kuti mtengo wogulira mabizinesi ophera watsika ndi 0.1 yuan / kg.Mtengo kumpoto chakum'mawa kwa China wadutsa 7, ndipo mtengo waukulu ndi 14 yuan / kg.Mtengo wa nkhumba ku East China unatsika, ndipo mtengo wa nkhumba kumadera ena kupatula Shandong udakali pamwamba pa 14.5 yuan / kg.Henan ku Central China adatsogolera kuchepa, kutsika ndi 0,15 yuan / kg.Nyanja ziwirizi ndizokhazikika kwakanthawi, ndipo mtengo wake ndi 14.3 yuan / kg.Ku South China, mtengowo unatsika ndi 0.1 yuan / kg, mtengo waukulu wa Guangdong ndi Guangxi unali 14.5 yuan / kg, ndipo Hainan anali 14 yuan / kg.Kumwera chakumadzulo kunagwa 0,1 yuan / kg, Sichuan ndi Chongqing 15.1 yuan / kg.Nthano ya golidi, siliva ndi khumi ili chonchi.Palibe chithandizo chabwino pamtengo wanthawi yochepa.Ndizowona kuti pali kuwonjezeka kwa malonda.Mabizinesi opha anthu amapezerapo mwayi pazimenezi ndipo kuwonjezeka sikukuwonekera.Zikuyembekezeka kuti mtengo wa nkhumba upitilira kugwa.
Kupatsa mphamvu
malasha a nthunzi

Port spot deadlock, kubweza kwamtengo wapamwamba
Pansi pa kukakamizidwa ndi nkhani monga mlengalenga wakuda wakuda ndi chitsimikizo chokhazikitsidwa ndi ndondomeko, tsogolo la malasha lamphamvu linasintha kwambiri dzulo, ndi mgwirizano waukulu 01 kutseka pa 635.6 mu malonda a usiku, ndi kusiyana kwa mtengo pakati pa 1-5 ndi 56.4.Pankhani ya msika wamalo, wokhudzidwa ndi msonkhano womwe ukubwera wa 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, migodi ina yotseguka ku Shaanxi ndi Shanxi ayimitsa kupanga ndikuchepetsa kupanga.Ngakhale kuti zoletsa zoyambitsa zida zophulika zidachotsedwa ku Inner Mongolia, malo opangirako akadali olimba, ndipo mtengo wa malasha pamoto ukukwera.Ponena za madoko, mtengo wa malasha padoko ukadali wokwera kwambiri.Chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo komanso kulingalira za kuopsa kwa msika kwa nthawi yayitali, amalonda sakonda kukweza katundu, ndipo digiri yovomerezeka ya makampani otsika mtengo wamtengo wapatali siwokwera.The Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal malasha nthunzi + 0-702 yuan / tani.

Pankhani, bungwe la National Development and Reform Commission posachedwapa lidapereka chidziwitso chowonetsetsa kuyenda kwa malasha, magetsi, mafuta ndi gasi, ponena kuti zigawo zonse, zigawo zodziyimira pawokha ndi mizinda ndi mabizinesi oyenerera akuyenera kulimbikitsa kuwunika ndi kusanthula kwamphamvu kwa kupanga malasha ndi kufunikira kwa mayendedwe, kupeza munthawi yake ndikugwirizanitsa kuti athetse mavuto omwe akupezekapo, ndikuyesetsa kuonetsetsa kuti malasha akhazikika asanafike komanso pambuyo pa 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

Kuchuluka kwa madoko akumpoto kudachulukiranso, ndi kuchuluka kwa kutumiza tsiku lililonse kwa matani 575000, pafupifupi tsiku lililonse kusamutsa njanji kuchuluka kwa matani 660000, doko la + 8-5.62 miliyoni matani, kuwerengera kwa doko la Caofeidian la - 30 mpaka 3.17 miliyoni matani, ndi kuwerengera kwa Jingtang Port ya SDIC + 4 mpaka matani 1.08 miliyoni.

Dzulo, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa tsiku ndi tsiku kwa magetsi kunachulukanso.Magulu akuluakulu asanu ndi limodzi amphamvu a m'mphepete mwa nyanja adadya matani 730000 a malasha, ndi matani 9.83 miliyoni a malasha m'gulu ndi masiku 13.5 osungira malasha.

Mlozera wonyamula malasha waku China udakwera 0.01% mpaka 1172 dzulo
Pazonse, misonkhano yofunika kuyambira Seputembala mpaka Okutobala komanso kuyang'anira chitetezo / chitetezo m'malo opanga zinthu zitha kupitilizabe kuletsa kutulutsidwa kwazinthu.Ngakhale kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa tsiku ndi tsiku kwa magetsi akumunsi kwatsika, kudakali pamlingo wapamwamba, ndipo chithandizo cha malo ndi champhamvu.Pamsika wam'tsogolo, mgwirizano 01 umafanana ndi nyengo yotentha kwambiri, koma pali kukakamizidwa kuyika m'malo mwake munthawi yake, ndipo kuthamanga kwambiri kumawonekera.Tiyenera kulabadira za chikhalidwe chonse cha msika wozungulira, kutsika kwa mtengo watsiku ndi tsiku komanso kutulutsidwa kwa mphamvu zopangira zapamwamba.
Mtengo PTA

Kupanga poliyesitala ndi malonda ambiri, PTA ofooka ntchito
Dzulo, chilengedwe chonse cha katundu sichinali chabwino, PTA inali yofooka, ndipo mgwirizano waukulu wa 01 unatsekedwa ku 5268 mu malonda a usiku, ndipo kusiyana kwa mtengo pakati pa 1-5 kunakulitsidwa mpaka 92. Zogulitsa zamsika zimakhala ndi voliyumu yayikulu, ogulitsa ambiri makamaka kugula zinthu zaposachedwa, mafakitale ena a polyester alandila maoda, msika ukupitilizabe kuchepa.Mkati mwa tsikuli, malo akuluakulu ndi 01 Contract adakambirana za kuchotsera 20-35, risiti ya nyumba yosungiramo katundu ndi 01 kupereka mgwirizano pa kuchotsera 30;masana, 5185-5275 inatengedwa, 5263-5281 inaperekedwa ku malonda, ndipo 5239 risiti yosungiramo katundu inagulitsidwa.

Dzulo, mawu a PX adabwereranso modzidzimutsa, ndipo CFR idaperekedwa ku 847 USD / T (- 3) usiku wonse ku Asia, ndipo ndalama zolipirira zinali pafupifupi 850. PX inanena 840 USD / T mu October ndi 852 USD / T mu November.M'tsogolomu, PX yakunyumba ikhoza kuchotsedwa, koma sizikuyembekezeka kuti idzatha.

Pankhani ya chomera cha PTA, nthawi yokonzanso chomera cha PTA chokhala ndi matani 1.5 miliyoni pachaka m'chigawo cha Jiangsu chakulitsidwa pafupifupi masiku 5;Sitima yoyamba ya PX ya bizinesi ya PTA ku Huabin No.1 mzere wopanga wafika ku Hong Kong posachedwapa, koma nkhani za thanki yosungirako sizinakwaniritsidwe mokwanira, ndipo zikuyembekezeka kuyamba mu Novembala;kampani ya PTA m'chigawo cha Fujian yasaina mgwirizano wokonzanso, ndipo ndondomeko yoyambira ikhoza kufulumizitsidwa panthawiyo, ndipo ndondomeko yoyamba ndiyo kuyambiranso kuyambiranso kwa gawo la mphamvu zopanga gawo lachinayi.

Kumbali yakumunsi kwa mtsinje, kupanga ndi kugulitsa kwa ulusi wa poliyesitala wa Jiangsu ndi Zhejiang kunalibe dzulo, pafupifupi pafupifupi 60-70% pafupifupi 3:30 pm;kugulitsa kwa poliyesitala mwachindunji kunali pafupifupi, ndipo kunsi kwa mtsinje kumangofunika kuwonjezeredwa, kupanga ndi malonda ambiri kunali pafupi 50-80%.

Ponseponse, kukonza kwa mbewu za PTA kuyambira Seputembala mpaka Okutobala, kuphatikiza ndi poliyesitala otsika komanso katundu wambiri, kuperekera kwakanthawi kochepa komanso mawonekedwe ofunikira kumathandizidwabe.Komabe, pamgwirizano wam'tsogolo 01, thandizo la PX pamtengo wamtengo wapatali linali lofooka mgawo lachinayi.Pansi pa kukakamizidwa kuyambira Novembala mpaka Disembala pazida zake zatsopano ndi zakale, zinali zovuta kusunga ndalama zolipirira, ndipo PTA callback pressure idatsalira.Tiyenera kulabadira mkhalidwe wonse wa msika wazinthu, kupanga poliyesitala kunsi kwa mitsinje ndi malonda & kusintha kwa zinthu ndi mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi.
Tianjiao

Shanghai Rubber 1801 ikhoza kukhazikika pakanthawi kochepa
Ponena za kuchepa kwaposachedwa (1) 1801 mtengo kufalikira kutsika koyenera, deta kuchokera mu August inali yotsika kuposa kuyembekezera kwautali, kutsimikizira kufunikira kofooka kwa maudindo afupikitsa (2) mbale yopereka mbali inafooka.(3) M'makampani a mphira, malo ambiri afupikitsa mu disk kasinthidwe, osakhala muyezo, njira zitatu zofanana, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti masiku a malonda a 11 abwerere ku mfundo za 800.2. M'kanthawi kochepa, ndikuganiza kuti 14500-15000 idzakhalabe ndikubwereranso kuti muwone malonda onse ogulitsa mafakitale ndi zakuda.

PE?

Chikondwerero chisanachitike, kufunikira kokonzekera katundu kumafunikabe kumasulidwa, ndipo mkati ndi kunja kukulendewera mozondoka ukukulirakulira & macro ndi commodity atmosphere imakhala yofooka, ndipo pakali pano kupanikizika kwa nthawi yochepa.

Pa Seputembara 21, mtengo wa LLD wakale wa fakitale ya Sinopec ku North China, East China, pakati pa China, PetroChina, East China, South China, Kumwera chakumadzulo kwa China ndi Kumpoto chakumadzulo kwa China udachepetsedwa ndi 50-200 yuan / ton, ndi msika wotsika. mtengo ku North China unabwerera ku 9350 yuan / tani (makampani opanga malasha).Pakalipano, l1801 lita imodzi yamadzi kumpoto kwa China idagulitsidwa ku 170 yuan / T.Panali amalonda ochulukirapo kuti atumize katundu pamtengo wokhotakhota wa msika, ndipo cholinga cholandirira kunsi kwa mtsinje chinali chofala, Komabe, kufunikira kwa zinthu zotsika mtengo kwawonjezeka, ndipo kukakamizidwa kumbali ya malo kukadalipo;Kuphatikiza apo, pa Seputembara 20, CFR Far East otsika mtengo wofanana ndi RMB 9847 / T, msika wakunja ukulendewera mozondoka mpaka 327 yuan/T, ndipo mtengo wamalowo udakali mozondoka mpaka 497 yuan/T. thandizo lakunja lidzapitirizabe kukhudza kuchuluka kwa kuitanitsa mu October;ponena za kusiyana kwa mtengo wazinthu zokhudzana, kusiyana kwa mtengo pakati pa hd-lld ndi ld-lld ndi 750 yuan / T ndi 650 yuan / T motsatira, ndi zinthu zokhudzana ndi mbale Kupanikizika kwa nkhope kukupitirizabe kuchepetsa, kusagwirizana kwapakati mwayi ukadali wochepa.Ponseponse, kuchokera pakuwona kufalikira kwamitengo, chithandizo chotheka cha misika yakunja chalimbikitsidwa, kukakamizidwa kwazinthu zokhudzana ndi zinthu kumapitilirabe kutsika, ndipo kupsinjika kwapambali kumachepa pang'onopang'ono ndi kugwa kwamitengo.Ngakhale kutsika kwakukulu kwamitengo yamtsogolo kukupitilirabe kuletsa kufunidwa kwakanthawi kochepa chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa sikelo ya US Federal Reserve komanso kufowoka kwa chilengedwe chonse, kufunikira kwa katundu wokonzekera tchuthi kukuyembekezeka kutulutsidwa.

Kuchokera pakuwona kwakupereka ndi kufunikira, kufufuza kwa PetroChina kunapitirizabe kugwera pafupifupi matani a 700000 dzulo, ndipo petrochemicals anapitiriza kugulitsa phindu kuzinthu zisanachitike chikondwererochi.Kuonjezera apo, kutulutsidwa kwapakati kwa malo oyambirira ogwirizanitsa ma hedging, pamodzi ndi kufowokeka kwaposachedwa kwa macro ndi commodity atmosphere, kuwonjezereka kwa nthawi yochepa.Komabe, zotsatira zoyipazi zidzagayidwa pang'onopang'ono pakutsika kwamitengo koyambirira.Kuonjezera apo, pali kufunikira kwa kukonzekera kwa katundu chisanachitike chikondwerero kumunsi kwa posachedwapa Pambuyo pa kukhazikika, mwayi wofunikira udzawonekera.Kuphatikiza apo, inversion yamkati ndi yakunja idzakulitsidwa, kukakamizidwa kwa zinthu zomwe si zachikhalidwe kudzachepetsedwa, ndipo kupanikizika kwa malo kumagayidwa pang'onopang'ono ndi msika, ndipo padzakhalabe mwayi woti kufunikira kudzayambiranso. nthawi yotsiriza (sungani chikondwerero chisanachitike).Choncho, akulangizidwa kuti tidikire mwayi woyesa malo osungiramo zinthu zowala musanayambe chikondwererocho ndikugwira ntchito zazifupi mosamala kumayambiriro.Akuti mtengo waukulu wa L1801 ndi 9450-9650 yuan / tani.

PP?

Macro ndi zinthu zam'mlengalenga zafowoka, kuyambiranso kukakamiza kwa chipangizo & kuthandizira kusiyana kwamitengo, kufunikira kwa masheya, kusamala kwa PP

Pa Seputembara 21, mitengo yakale ya fakitale yaku Sinopec North China, South China ndi PetroChina South China idachepetsedwa ndi 200 yuan / tani, mitengo yotsika pamsika ku East China idapitilira kutsika mpaka 8500 yuan / tani, kukwera kwamitengo. wa pp1801 ku East China malo adatsikira ku 110 yuan / T, mtengo wam'tsogolo udali wopanikizika, amalonda adachulukitsa kutumiza, zogula zakutsika zomwe zimangofunika kugula, gwero lamitengo yotsika lidagayidwa, ndipo kupanikizika kwamaloko kudatsitsimutsidwa. mtengo wotsiriza udapitilirabe ku 8100 yuan / tani, mtengo wothandizira ufa unali pafupifupi 8800 yuan / tani, ndipo ufa unalibe phindu, kotero thandizo lina likhoza kuwonetsedwa pang'onopang'ono.Kuphatikiza apo, pa Seputembara 20, CFR Far East mtengo wakunja wakunja wa RMB watsika pang'ono mpaka 9233 yuan / ton, pp1801 idasinthidwa kukhala 623 yuan / ton, ndipo katundu wapano adasinthidwa kukhala 733 yuan / ton.Zenera lotumizira kunja latsegulidwa, ndipo thandizo lakunja likupitiriza kulimbikitsa.Kuchokera pakuwona kufalikira kwa mtengo, maziko amakhalabe otsika, kuperekedwa kwa katundu kumakhala kolimba, ndipo malowa ndi kumbuyo, omwe amapondereza msika.Posachedwapa, amalonda awonjezeranso ntchito zawo zotumizira, ndipo kupanikizika kwanthawi yochepa kwawonjezeka.Komabe, ndi kukonza kwamitengo, kukakamiza kwa malonda pambuyo pake kumatha kuchepetsedwa pang'onopang'ono, ndipo kutsika kwamtunda kufunitsitsa kulandira katundu kwawonjezeka.Kuonjezera apo, gulu lonse ndi malowa apitiriza kugwedezeka mozondoka pamsika wakunja ndi malire akuluakulu, ndipo gululi limakhalanso pafupi ndi Powder m'malo mothandizira, ntchito yonseyo imatha kufooka, ndipo kuthandizira kusiyana kwa mtengo kumalimbikitsidwanso. .

Malinga ndi kawonedwe ka kapezedwe ndi kafunidwe, kasamalidwe ka mbewu ya PP idakhazikika kwakanthawi mpaka 14.55% ndipo chiŵerengero chojambula chinakhazikika kwakanthawi mpaka 28.23% dzulo.Komabe, Shenhua Baotou, Shijiazhuang Refinery ndi Haiwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. ali ndi mapulani oyambiranso posachedwa.Komanso, mphamvu zatsopano kupanga adzamasulidwa pang'onopang'ono (Ningmei gawo III, Yuntianhua (600096, Komanso, pakali pano, maziko akadali otsika, ndi kotunga katundu anakonza mu mgwirizano 01 pang'onopang'ono anabwerera malo. gawo ili la kupsyinjika linagayidwa ndi kugwa kwa mtengo.Posachedwapa, kufunikira kwa kuluka kwa pulasitiki kwakhala kukwera pamlingo wochepa.Kufuna konse kwa nyengo sikunatsimikizidwe.Kuonjezera apo, pali kufunika kokonzekera katundu kale. Phwando la 11. Pakalipano, PP idzakhalabe kupanikizika pambali pawo Pitirizani kukumba masewerawa pakati pa nyengo yowonjezereka ya kufunikira ndi chimbudzi, kotero kuti disk yaifupi kapena mosamala yaifupi, ikuyang'ana pa chithandizo cha kuchira kofunikira. , mkati ndi kunja mozondoka ndi kulowetsa ufa Akuti masiku ano pp1801 mtengo wamtengo wapatali ndi 8500-8650 yuan / ton.
methanoli

MEG idagwa, phindu la olefin lotsika & malo ochotsera, malo opangira zolimba, methanol yochenjera

Malo: pa Seputembara 21, mtengo wa methanol udakwera ndikugwa wina ndi mnzake, womwe mtengo wotsikirapo wa Taicang unali 2730 yuan / tani, mtengo wa Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia ndi kum'mwera chakumadzulo kwa China. 2670 (- 200), 2700 (- 200), 2720 (- 260), 2520 (- 500 katundu) ndi 2750 (- 180 katundu) yuan / ton, ndipo mtengo wotsikirapo wa katundu woperekedwa m'dera lopangira unali 2870- 3020 yuan / tani, ndi kupanga ndi malonda arbitrage zenera anatsekedwa kwathunthu 01 awiriawiri Taicang anapitiriza lende mozondoka kuti 32 yuan / tani.Poganizira kutsekedwa kosalekeza kwa zenera la arbitrage la kupanga ndi kutsatsa, izi mosakayikira zili ndi chithandizo chosadziwika cha doko ndi disk;

Kusiyana kwamitengo mkati ndi kunja: pa Seputembara 20, CFR China spot RMB mtengo unatsikanso mpaka 2895 yuan / ton (kuphatikiza 50 madoko osiyanasiyana), ma801 adatembenuza mtengo wakunja kukhala 197 yuan / T, East China malo adatembenuza mtengo wakunja kufika 165 yuan / T, ndi chithandizo chamsika chakunja cha malo apakhomo ndi disk chinalimbikitsidwa.

Mtengo: mtengo wamalasha wa Ordos (600295, unit matenda) ndi 5500 dakakou malasha mu Jining wa Province Shandong anali 391 ndi 640 yuan / tani dzulo, ndi mtengo lolingana ndi gulu pamwamba anali 2221 ndi 2344 yuan / tani.Kuphatikiza apo, mtengo wa methanol wa mutu wa gasi wa Sichuan Chongqing unali 1830 yuan / tani ku East China, komanso mpweya wa uvuni wa coke ku North China unali 2240 yuan / tani ku East China;

Kufuna komwe kukubwera: potengera chindapusa cha disk processing, PP + MEG idagweranso ku 2437 yuan / ton, ikadali pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri.Komabe, mtengo wa disk ndi malo opangira pp-3 * ma unagweranso ku 570 ndi 310 yuan / T. dzulo, disk ya Meg inagwa kwambiri, ndikuwonjezera kupanikizika komwe kunabweretsedwa ndi PP pobisala;

Pazonse, mitengo yam'tsogolo idapitilira kutsika kwambiri dzulo, makamaka chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa MEG ndi Federal Reserve, zomwe zidapangitsa kutsika kwakukulu kwazinthu zonse.Kuphatikiza apo, PP imayang'anizanabe ndi kukakamizidwa kwa mphamvu zatsopano zopangira, kuyambitsanso chipangizo ndi disk solidification spot outflow pakanthawi kochepa.Komabe, pali zizindikiro zochepetsera pang'onopang'ono kukakamizidwa kofunikira, ndipo mtengo wamalo udakali wolimba, ndikukulitsa kwa malo ophimbidwa ndi disk, komanso kuyimitsidwa kokonzekera kwa zida za Brunei. kuwerengera kwa madoko aku East China kudatsikanso kwambiri sabata ino.Ndiko kusamala kuti ukhale waufupi mu nthawi yochepa, ndipo sikovomerezeka kuthamangitsa mwachidule.Akuti mtengo watsiku ndi tsiku wa ma801 ndi 2680-2750 yuan / tani.
mafuta otentha

Msonkhano wapamwezi wa OPEC jmmc pa msika

Nkhani zamsika ndi data yofunika

Tsogolo lamafuta a WTI mu Novembala lidatseka $0.14, kapena 0.28%, mpaka $50.55/mgolo.Tsogolo lamafuta amafuta a Brent a Novembara adakwera $0.14, kapena 0.25%, mpaka $56.43/mbiya.NYMEX October mafuta amtsogolo adatsekedwa pa $ 1.6438 / galoni.NYMEX October Kuwotcha mafuta amtsogolo kutsekedwa pa $ 1.8153 / galoni.

2. Akuti msonkhano woyang'anira kuchepetsa kupanga ukuyembekezeka kuchitikira ku Vienna nthawi ya 4:00 pm nthawi ya Beijing Lachisanu, motsogozedwa ndi Kuwait komanso kupezeka ndi akuluakulu aku Venezuela, Algeria, Russia ndi mayiko ena.Msonkhanowo udzakambirana nkhani monga kukulitsa mgwirizano wochepetsera kupanga ndi kuyang'anira zogulitsa kunja kuti ziwone momwe kuchepetsa kuchepetsako, Reuters inati.Komabe, woimira OPEC adanena kuti pakalipano, mayiko onse sanagwirizane pa kukulitsa mgwirizano wochepetsera kupanga, ndipo zonse ziyenera kukambidwa.

Mtumiki wa mphamvu ku Russia: OPEC ndi mayiko omwe si a OPEC adzakambirana za malamulo oyendetsera mafuta osakanizidwa pamsonkhano wa Vienna.Malinga ndi nkhani zamsika, OPEC Technical Committee yati nduna za mayiko omwe amapanga mafuta aziyang'anira kutumizidwa kunja kwa mafuta ngati chowonjezera pa mgwirizano wochepetsera mafuta.

4. Goldman Sachs: zikuyembekezeredwa kuti zokambirana za OPEC sizidzawonjezera mgwirizano wochepetsera mafuta, koma ndi mofulumira kwambiri kuti athetse.Akukhulupirira kuti komiti yoyang'anira kuchepetsa kupanga mafuta ku OPEC siganiza zokulitsa mgwirizano wochepetsera mafuta sabata ino.Mfundo zazikuluzikulu zamakono zimathandizira kubwereza kwa Goldman kuti akuyembekeza kuti kugawa mafuta kudzakwera $ 58 / mbiya pakutha kwa chaka.

Tankertracker: Kutumiza kwamafuta a OPEC kukuyembekezeka kutsika ndi 140000 B / D mpaka 23.82 miliyoni B / D kuyambira Okutobala 7.

L. ndondomeko ya ndalama

Posachedwapa, msika umayang'ana kwambiri pa msonkhano wa mwezi ndi mwezi wa jmmc wa OPEC, ndipo nkhani zingapo zomwe msika umapereka chidwi kwambiri ndi izi: 1. Kaya mgwirizano wochepetsa kupanga udzakulitsidwa;2. Momwe mungalimbikitsire kukhazikitsa ndi kuyang'anira mgwirizano wochepetsera kupanga, komanso ngati zizindikiro za kunja zidzayang'aniridwa;3. Kaya Nigeria ndi Libya alowa nawo gulu lochepetsa kupanga.Mwambiri, chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwamafuta amafuta chaka chino, OPEC sangaganizire zokulitsa mgwirizano wochepetsera kupanga pakali pano, koma sizikunenedwa kuti msonkhano wanthawi yayitali udzachitika kotala loyamba la chaka chamawa. onjezerani kuchepetsa kupanga.Tikuyerekeza kuti msonkhano wa jmmc lero ukhudza momwe tingalimbikitsire kuyang'anira ndi kukhazikitsa njira yochepetsera kupanga.Komabe, pali zovuta zambiri zaukadaulo zomwe zikuyenera kuthetsedwa pakuwunika kuchuluka kwa zotumiza kunja.Pakalipano, kupanga kwa Nigeria ndi Libya sikunakhazikitsidwe bwino, kotero mwayi wochepetsera kupanga sungakhale waukulu.
phula

Msika wazinthu zonse watsika, kutumiza kwa asphalt kwapita patsogolo
Mawonedwe mwachidule:
Msika wam'tsogolo wazinthu zonse udatsika dzulo, pomwe malasha ndi ferrosilicon akutsika ndi 5%, mankhwala nthawi zambiri amatsika, methanol ndi 4%, mphira ndi PVC kuposa 3%.Tsogolo la asphalt linakhalabe likutsika pamalonda masana.Mtengo wotseka wa mgwirizano waukulu 1712 dzulo masana unali 2438 yuan / tani, yomwe inali 34 yuan / tani yotsika kuposa mtengo wokhazikika wa dzulo, ndi kuchepa kwa 1,38% 5500 manja.Kutsika uku kumakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi momwe msika wazinthu zonse uliri, ndipo palibenso kuwonongeka kwa zinsinsi za asphalt.

Msika wamalowo udali wokhazikika, ndi mitengo yayikulu ya 2400-2500 yuan / tani pamsika waku East China, 2350-2450 yuan / tani pamsika wa Shandong ndi 2450-2550 yuan / tani pamsika waku South China.Pakalipano, pambuyo pa kutha kwa kuyang'anira chilengedwe, ntchito yomanga misewu yopita pansi imabwezeretsedwa pang'onopang'ono.Pambuyo pa kutha kwa kuyang'anira zachilengedwe ku Shandong, kutumizidwa kwa makina oyeretsera kwakhala bwino, ndipo dera la East China likuyambiranso pang'onopang'ono.Komabe, pakali pano, pali mvula yambiri m'derali, ndipo voliyumuyo sinatulutsidwe.Kumpoto kwa China, amalonda akugwira ntchito mwakhama pokonzekera katundu tsiku la tchuthi la National Day lisanafike, ndipo zinthu zonse zotumizira ndi zabwino Mkhalidwe wa gasi ndi wabwino, ndipo kutumiza kwathunthu kumakhala kosavuta.Pakali pano, nthawi yomanga kumpoto kwa China ndi pafupifupi mwezi umodzi kuchokera pakati mpaka masiku khumi otsiriza a October.Kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe pakupanga misewu kumachepa, ndipo payenera kukhala ntchito yofulumira posachedwapa kuti athandize kufunikira kwa asphalt.Pamene tchuthi cha National Day chikuyandikira, momwe zinthu ziliri pakati pa Shandong, Hebei, kumpoto chakum'mawa ndi zigawo zina zachepetsa pang'onopang'ono kukakamiza kwamafuta oyeretsa.Kumbali ya mtengo, malo a asphalt ali pamalo ocheperako.Mtengo wamafuta wamafuta utakwezedwa, phindu lamalingaliro oyengawo linatsika ndi 110 yuan mpaka 154 yuan / tani sabata yatha, ndipo malo oti asinthenso kutsika kwamitengo ndi ochepa.Komabe, ziyenera kukumbukiridwa kuti chifukwa cha zotsatira za zinthu zotetezera zachilengedwe pa mbali yofunikira komanso kuwongolera kuwonongeka kwa mpweya m'nyengo yozizira, kufunikira kwamtsogolo kungakhale kocheperapo kusiyana ndi kuyembekezera.Kuphatikiza apo, pofika kumapeto kwa chaka chino, mphamvu yoyenga phula m'madera osiyanasiyana idzawonjezeka kwambiri, ndipo mphamvu yopangira phula idzawonjezeka kwambiri.

Pazonse, poyerekeza ndi kuchuluka kwa phula panyengo yachitukuko chachikhalidwe, pali malo ochepa ocheperako kwambiri.Zikuyembekezeka kuti pakubwezeretsanso ntchito yomanga kunsi kwa mtsinje m'tsogolomu, padzakhala malo ena okulirapo.

Malingaliro anjira:
Mtengo wa 2500 yuan, wogula nthawi yayitali, tcherani khutu pakusintha kwamitengo yapamwezi.

Kuopsa kwa Strategic:
Kupanga phula ndikochulukira, ndipo kuperekedwa kwatha, ndipo mtengo wamafuta padziko lonse lapansi umasinthasintha kwambiri.

Zosankha zambiri
Kugulitsa kwambiri ufa wa soya kumatha kusiya kupambana pang'onopang'ono, ndipo kusinthasintha kwa shuga kumakwera
Zosankha za soya

Monga mgwirizano waukulu mu Januwale, mtengo wa tsogolo la chakudya cha soya unapitirira kusinthasintha pa September 21, ndipo mtengo watsiku ndi tsiku unatsekedwa pa 2741 yuan / ton.Voliyumu yamalonda ndi malo amasikuwo anali 910000 ndi 1880000, motsatana.

Kuchuluka kwa malonda a zosankha za chakudya cha soya kunakhalabe kokhazikika lero, ndi chiwongoladzanja chonse cha manja a 11300 (umodzi, womwewo pansipa), ndi malo a 127700. kwa 70% ya maudindo onse a mgwirizano.Malire amtundu umodzi wosankha chakudya cha soya adatsitsimutsidwa kuchoka pa 300 mpaka 2000, ndipo zochitika zamsika zidakwera kwambiri.Chiyerekezo cha chakudya cha soya chimayika voliyumu yosankha kuyimba chinasunthidwa kufika pa 0.52, ndipo chiŵerengero cha malo opangira mwayi woyimbira chinasungidwa pa 0.63, ndipo malingalirowo adakhalabe osalowerera ndale komanso oyembekezera.Zikuyembekezeka kuti msika ukhalabe ndi mawonekedwe ocheperako tsiku ladziko lisanafike.

Pambuyo pa kutulutsidwa kwa lipoti la USDA la mwezi uliwonse ndi zofunikira, kusasinthika kunapitirira kuchepa.M'mwezi wa Januware, mtengo wamtengo wamtengo wapatali wa soya chakudya chamtengo wapatali unasamukira ku 2750, kusakhazikika komwe kumatanthawuza kupitilira kutsika mpaka 16.94%, ndipo kusiyana pakati pa kusakhazikika komwe kumatanthawuza ndi kusakhazikika kwa mbiri yakale kwamasiku 60 kudakula mpaka - 1.83%.Pambuyo pa kutulutsidwa kwa lipoti la USDA pamwezi ndi zofunikira mu Seputembala, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti kusakhazikika kumapatuka ku kusakhazikika kwakanthawi kumatha, ndipo mtengo wa diski ukuyembekezeka kusinthasintha pang'ono, ndipo kusakhazikika komwe kumatanthawuza kuli pamlingo wotsika kwambiri. .Akuti udindo wa zosankha zotalikirapo (m1801-c-2800 ndi m1801-p-2600) zitha kugulitsidwa pang'onopang'ono kuteteza chiwopsezo chakuwonjezeka kwakusakhazikika komwe kumabwera kumapeto kwa sabata.Phindu ndi kutayika kwa kugulitsa zosankha zanthawi yayitali ndi 2 Yuan / gawo.
Zosankha za shuga

Mtengo wa mgwirizano waukulu wa January wa tsogolo la shuga woyera unagwa pa September 21, ndipo mtengo watsiku ndi tsiku unatsekedwa pa 6135 yuan / tani.Voliyumu yamalonda ya mgwirizano wa January inali 470000, ndipo malo anali 690000. Voliyumu yamalonda ndi malo adakhalabe okhazikika.

Masiku ano, chiwerengero chonse cha malonda a shuga chinali 6700 (umodzi, womwewo pansipa), ndipo chiwerengero chonse chinali 64700. Malire amtundu umodzi wa shuga adatsitsimutsidwanso kuchokera ku 200 mpaka 2000, ndipo kuchuluka kwa malonda ndi malo osankhidwa kunawonjezeka. kwambiri.Pakali pano, voliyumu ya mgwirizano mu January inali 74% ndipo udindowu unali 57%.Kuchuluka kwa malonda masiku ano a zosankha za shuga PC_ Chiŵerengero chinasunthira ku 0.66, malo PC_ Chiŵerengerocho chinatsalira pa 0.90, ndipo ntchito ya zosankha za shuga woyera inachepanso_ Kutha kwa chiŵerengero choyankha kumaganizo ndi kochepa.

Pakadali pano, kusakhazikika kwa shuga m'masiku 60 ndi 11.87%, ndipo kusinthika kwamitengo yamtengo wapatali mu Januware kwafika 12.41%.Pakalipano, kusiyana pakati pa kusinthasintha komwe kumatanthawuza ndi kusinthika kwa mbiri yakale kwa zosankha zamtengo wapatali mu Januwale kumachepetsedwa kufika pa 0.54%.Kusasunthika kukukulirakulira, ndipo chiwopsezo chokhala ndi mwayi wosankha chikuwonjezeka.Alangizidwa kuti asunge malo a putty span (kugulitsa sr801p6000 ndi sr801c6400) mosamala, ndikukolola mtengo wa nthawi yomwe mwasankha.Masiku ano, phindu ndi kutayika kwa malo ogulitsa ambiri (sr801p6000 ndi sr801c6400) ndi 4.5 yuan / gawo.
TB

Fumbi la "kuchepetsa" lidakhazikika, zokolola zandalama zidakwera kupita ku China

Ndemanga ya msika:
Tsogolo la Treasury bond lidatsika tsiku lonse, ambiri adatsekedwa, ndipo malingaliro amsika sanali apamwamba.Mgwirizano waukulu wazaka zisanu tf1712 unatseka 0.07% kutsika pa 97.450 yuan, ndi 9179 zambiri zamalonda, 606 zochepa kuposa tsiku lapitalo la malonda, ndi maudindo 64582, 164 zochepa kuposa tsiku lamalonda lapitalo.Chiwerengero chonse cha zochitika za mapangano atatu anali 9283, ndi kuchepa kwa 553, ndi malo okwana mapangano 65486 unachepa ndi 135. Mgwirizano waukulu wa zaka 10 t1712 anatseka 0,15% kuti 94.97 yuan, ndi zolowa 35365, kuwonjezeka kwa 7621, ndi kuchepa kwa manja a 74 mu malo a 75017. Chiwerengero chonse cha zochitika za mgwirizanowu zitatu zinali 35586, kuwonjezeka kwa 7704, ndi malo okwana 76789 mapangano adatsika ndi 24.

Kusanthula msika:
Mawu a US Federal Reserve a FOMC mu Seputembala adawonetsa kuti kuchepetsa pang'onopang'ono sikelo kudayamba mu Okutobala chaka chino, pomwe chiwongola dzanja cha benchmark sichinasinthe kuchoka pa 1% mpaka 1.25%.Zikuyembekezeka kuti chiwongola dzanja chidzakwezedwanso mu 2017, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti msika ukhale ndi mantha oletsa kulimba kwa ndalama pakanthawi kochepa.Zokolola za US Treasury bond zidakwera kwambiri, ndipo zokolola za msika wapakhomo wa interbank cash bond zidakhudzidwa ndi ma conductivity, ndipo kuchuluka kwake kudakulitsidwa.Zikuyembekezeka kuti Banki Yaikulu yaku China idzachepetsa kusalowerera ndale kwa banki yayikulu mgawo lachinayi, koma sidzakhudzidwa ndi kukwera kwapakati kwa banki yayikulu yaku China.

Kamvekedwe kakukhazikika kokhazikika kumakhalabe kofanana ndi kale, ndipo likulu likuyenda pang'onopang'ono tsiku ndi tsiku: banki yayikulu idachitanso ntchito zowombola mabiliyoni 40 kwa masiku 7 ndi biliyoni 20 kwa masiku 28 Lachinayi, komanso chiwongola dzanja chopambana. mitengo inali 2.45% ndi 2.75% motsatira, zomwe zinali zofanana ndi nthawi yotsiriza.Patsiku lomwelo, panali mabiliyoni 60 obwezeredwa okhwima, omwe adathetsa kukhwima kwa ndalama.Msika wotseguka wa banki yapakati umakhwima kwa masiku awiri otsatizana, ndikusunga bata ngati kale.Ziwongola dzanja zambiri za inter-bank pledge repo zidatsika, ndipo ndalamazo zidatsika pang'onopang'ono.Komabe, kuchepa kwa ndalamazo kutatha, kunalibe chidwi cha malonda pamsika, zomwe zimasonyeza kuti ndalama za msika zinali zosamala pambuyo poyambira kuchepetsa kuchepetsa kwa Fed komanso kusanathe kuwunika kwa MPa kotala.

Kufunika kwakukulu kwa ma bond a CDB, kufunikira kofooka kwa ma bond aku banki otumiza kunja ndi kutumizira kunja: zokolola zopambana zazaka zitatu za chiwongola dzanja zowonjezera za China Development Bank ndi 4.1970%, zochulukirapo ndi 3.75, zokolola zopambana zaka 7 zokhazikika. Chiwongola dzanja chowonjezera ndi 4.3486%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa bid ndi 4.03.Chiwongola dzanja chowonjezera chazaka 3 ndi 4.2801%, kuchulukitsa ndi 2.26, zaka 5 chiwongola dzanja chowonjezera ndi 4.3322%, kuchulukitsa ndi 2.21, chiwongola dzanja chowonjezera chazaka 10 ndi 4.3664%, bid angapo. ndi 2.39.Zotsatira zamalonda pamsika woyambira zimagawika, ndipo zokolola zopambana zamagawo awiri a China Development Bank ndizotsika kuposa kuwerengera kwa China National Development Bank, ndipo kufunikira ndikwamphamvu.Komabe, zokolola zopambana zamagawo atatu a banki yolowera ndi kugulitsa kunja ndizokwera kwambiri kuposa kuwerengera kwa ma bond aku China, ndipo kufunikira kuli kofooka.

Malangizo ogwiritsira ntchito:
Nsapato za ku US Federal Reserve zochepetsetsa zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito mwalamulo, ndipo Federal Reserve yawonetsa kaimidwe ka "kufupi ndi chiwombankhanga komanso kutali ndi Nkhunda".Ngakhale zokolola za ma treasury bond zanyumba ndizokwera chifukwa cha kukhudzidwa kwa ngongole zaku US, kutsutsana kwakukulu pamsika wama bond ndikadali pamalipiro.Banki yayikulu yakhazikitsa ndalama zokhazikika komanso zosalowerera ndale m'mawa kwambiri.Komanso, akhudzidwa ndi Manenedwe a zachuma China mu kotala chachinayi, banki chapakati mwina sangatsatire kudyetsedwa kukweza chiwongola dzanja Nthawi ya zotsatira za chiwopsezo chakunja chakunja ndi chochepa.Ziwongola dzanja zambiri za inter-bank pledge repo zidatsika, ndipo ndalamazo zidatsika pang'onopang'ono.Komabe, pambuyo pa kuchepa kwa mphamvu ya ndalama, panalibe chidwi cha malonda pamsika, zomwe zimasonyeza kuti ndalama za msika zinali zosamala pambuyo poyambira kuchepetsa kuchepa kwa Fed komanso kumapeto kwa kotala MPa kuwunika.Pitirizani kutha kwa kotala yoyambirira yangongole yocheperako osasintha.

Chodzikanira: zomwe zili mu lipotili zimasonkhanitsidwa ndikuwunikidwa ndi Huatai futures, zonse zomwe zimachokera ku zomwe zasindikizidwa.Kusanthula kwachidziwitso kapena malingaliro omwe afotokozedwa mu lipotilo sapanga malingaliro azachuma.Ogulitsa adzakhala ndi chigamulo choperekedwa ndi malingaliro omwe ali mu lipotilo ndi zotayika zomwe zingatheke.


Nthawi yotumiza: Nov-04-2020